AGP Executive Report

Payments Resilience: Sweden’s retreat from an increasingly cashless society is gaining momentum. Mastercard will require new cards issued in Europe from February 2027 to support offline payments, with critical retailers’ new terminals following in May; Sweden already has the technology in place. Industrial Investment: Heidelberg Materials is buying NCC’s materials operations in Sweden and Norway, in a deal also involving CRH valued at $820 million. Economic Outlook: Sweden is showing a strong recovery despite global uncertainty, according to a new report. Automotive: Polestar recorded its strongest third quarter and record nine-month retail sales, while the Tesla Model Y led sales across all five Nordic markets in September. Energy Infrastructure: Midgard is planning a subsea cable linking Sweden and Finland, and Saab and GKN Aerospace are expanding cooperation on Gripen E/F engine work to build Swedish expertise. Manufacturing: Arla plans to close a packaging plant in Sweden, while Swedish textile technology firms are promoting new innovations ahead of ITMA Asia.

Payments Resilience: Sweden is rethinking its cashless push as security concerns grow. The Riksbank urges people to keep cash at home and use it regularly in case of blackouts or sabotage. EU Budget: Sweden is among the countries seeking steep cuts to the EU’s 2028–34 budget. Ireland’s proposed €141 billion reduction has already been rejected by Germany as insufficient. Textile Technology: Swedish textile machinery firms are investing in facilities and automation as they prepare to showcase new technology at ITMA Asia. Retail: Swedish e-commerce grew 8% in the second quarter. Industry: Heidelberg Materials and CRH are set to buy NCC’s Swedish and Norwegian operations in an $820 million deal. Inflation: Swedish inflation has reached a 19-month high. Pharmaceuticals: A Dutch court has ordered Merck to stop selling injectable Keytruda in Sweden and seven other European markets amid a patent dispute with Halozyme.

EU Budget: Sweden is among the countries demanding deeper cuts to the EU’s 2028–34 budget. Ireland’s revised plan trims about €141 billion, but Germany rejected it as still too large, while Swedish Europe Minister Jessica Rosencrantz said it remained unaffordable. Aerospace: Saab will supply its GlobalEye radar and sensor system for Canada’s next airborne surveillance aircraft, partnering with Bombardier to build the platform around a Global 6500 jet. The deal brings Swedish defence technology into a major Canadian procurement. Online Retail: Swedish e-commerce grew 8% in the second quarter, pointing to continued momentum in the country’s digital retail market.

EU Budget: Sweden is among the countries pushing for deeper cuts to the bloc’s 2028–34 budget. Ireland’s latest compromise trims €140 billion from the European Commission’s proposal, but France argues for more funding. Investment and Trade: Pakistan will keep its 1981 investment treaty with Sweden after reviewing the proposed termination; more than 40 Swedish firms, including Ericsson and IKEA, operate in Pakistan. Swedish Business: AI data-centre operator Green AI Cloud plans to go public through a $300 million SPAC merger, while Midgard is planning a subsea cable linking Sweden and Finland. Economic Pulse: Sweden’s GDP and industrial output rebounded in August, though inflation has climbed to a 19-month high. Online retail sales grew 8% in the second quarter, and Swedish startups are forecast to raise $5 billion this year.

AI Investment: Sweden-based Green AI Cloud agreed to merge with a SPAC in a deal valuing the data-centre operator at $300 million before the transaction. Nordic Property: Swedish-listed Catena will pay €191 million for 10 Finnish logistics properties, adding 142,300 square metres to its portfolio. Clean Shipping: Wallenius Marine is joining KTH, RISE and AlfaWall Oceanbird on a Swedish Energy Agency-backed project to design ships that make better use of wind propulsion. Digital Infrastructure: Midgard Infra plans a 200-kilometre subsea cable linking Sweden and Finland, extending its fibre route from Oslo to Stockholm. Economic Outlook: Swedish GDP recovered in August as industrial output growth accelerated; ecommerce sales rose 8% in the second quarter, while startups are forecast to raise $5 billion this year. Investment Ties: Pakistan’s cabinet reversed a move to end its investment treaty with Sweden, keeping the 1981 agreement in place while reviewing its treaty policy.

Economic Recovery: Sweden’s GDP rose 1.1% in August, reversing July’s decline, as household spending and goods production strengthened. Annual growth accelerated to 3.5%, Statistics Sweden reported. Nordic Industry: Heidelberg Materials agreed to buy NCC’s Swedish and Norwegian aggregates and asphalt operations for about SEK 5.5 billion, adding 106 aggregate sites and 44 asphalt plants to its network. Critical Minerals: The EU named 46 strategic projects across 16 countries to boost extraction, processing and recycling of key materials; Sweden is among the countries involved. Startup Funding: European startups raised $25 billion in Q3, their strongest quarter in four years. Sweden accounted for $1.5 billion, while AI attracted three-quarters of the region’s investment.

Economic Outlook: Sweden is showing a strong recovery despite global uncertainty, according to a new report. AI Investment: Stockholm-based Green AI Cloud agreed to merge with US-listed Pioneer Acquisition I in a deal valuing the Swedish company at $300 million. It is developing renewable-powered AI data centres designed to reuse excess heat. Industry: NCC agreed to sell its Industry unit to Heidelberg Materials and CRH for $820 million, reshaping their Nordic materials businesses. Retail: Japan’s Fast Retailing reported record sales of 3.96 trillion yen and is expected to overtake Sweden’s H&M as the world’s second-largest clothing retailer. Company News: Arla is set to close a packaging plant in Sweden, while Polestar reported a slight rise in quarterly sales.

Building Materials: Heidelberg Materials agreed to buy NCC’s Swedish and Norwegian aggregates and asphalt operations for about SEK5.5 billion, adding 106 quarry sites and 44 asphalt plants. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2027. Defence Industry: Saab and GKN Aerospace are deepening cooperation on Gripen E/F engines, as Sweden seeks to strengthen domestic expertise and production capacity. A Brazilian-built Gripen E also completed its first flight, marking a step forward in Saab’s partnership with Embraer. Critical Minerals: Leading Edge Materials signed a preliminary agreement to explore supplying industrial minerals from its Norra Kärr project to Trilliun, potentially creating a market for co-products alongside rare earths. Economic Signals: Swedish inflation has reached a 19-month high, while Volvo Cars withdrew its 2026 guidance as market conditions worsened. Swedish services growth, meanwhile, hit a 10-month high.

Prices and Sentiment: Swedish inflation rose to a 19-month high, even as consumers ranked among the world’s most optimistic: Sweden scored 60.0, second in a September confidence survey. Auto Market: Tesla’s Model Y topped sales across all five Nordic markets in September, while Volvo Cars withdrew its 2026 guidance amid worsening market conditions. Business Expansion: Swedish freight-tech company Einride has begun daily driverless electric-truck operations in Ohio, moving cargo between EASE Logistics sites with remote monitoring. Industry: Swedish factory growth accelerated in September, pointing to renewed momentum in manufacturing.

Nobel Spotlight: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry to Henri B. Kagan and Kenso Soai for work on “mirror image” molecules, explaining how one molecular handedness can emerge spontaneously—research that underpins how key drugs and other compounds are made. Swedish Macro: Sweden’s inflation climbed to 1.1% year-on-year in September, the highest in just over 18 months, driven by higher energy prices. Cybersecurity in Sweden: A new Yubico/Okta survey finds a stubborn “awareness gap” in authentication: nearly half of security professionals still rely on passwords at work, despite knowing passkeys are safer—blaming legacy onboarding defaults and operational friction. Corporate Moves (IKEA): IKEA plans to close its Bolingbrook store in late 2027 and relocate to a smaller-format location in Naperville, as it reshapes its retail footprint. Energy Finance: Rezolv Energy secured up to €561m for its 1.3 GW Dama Solar project in Romania, with operations expected in 2H 2028.

Nobel Spotlight: Belgian physicist Francis Halzen won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics for work with the IceCube neutrino observatory and the discovery of high-energy “ghostly messengers” from space, reinforcing Sweden’s role as a global science hub. Retail & Circular Economy: Ikea will pilot an online buyback service for unwanted secondhand furniture, starting in Spain and Portugal, then expanding to the UK—aimed at capturing a growing pre-owned homewares market and competing with resale platforms. Swedish Defence: Sweden will deploy Patriot air defence systems to Poland later this year to protect NATO’s Rzeszów logistics hub, alongside Gripen patrols—another step in deepening Sweden-Poland security ties. Health & Biotech: Alvotech and LOTTE Biologics announced a long-term US manufacturing partnership to expand biosimilar supply, while global healthcare firms signal major US investment plans to strengthen domestic production. Finance & Crypto: 21shares extended its 100% sponsor fee waiver for the Ethereum staking ETF through October 8, 2027, with staking yield highlighted for investors. Open Banking (UK): Trustly-owned Ecospend won a UK public-sector contract to add open-banking identity checks to GOV.UK One Login, running to 2029. Business & Industry: A Swedish-led AI compute deal worth $71.9m was announced for delivering compute via a Sweden-based cluster, underscoring continued investment in local tech infrastructure.

Swedish Industry & Jobs: Ericsson has withdrawn a planned collective redundancy procedure for 131 workers at its Genoa R&D site after intervention by Italy’s prime minister, shifting the process toward consensual, incentivised and voluntary cuts. Nobel Spotlight (Science & Economy): In Stockholm, Belgian-American physicist Francis Halzen won the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics for work behind the IceCube neutrino observatory and the discovery of high-energy neutrinos; the Nobel week also opened with the Medicine prize for optogenetics, a light-based tool for decoding brain activity. EU Budget Fight: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen warned against Germany-led “frugal” demands for large cuts to the bloc’s 2028-2034 budget, saying defence, AI, enlargement and crisis preparedness are at stake. Cybersecurity & Finance: South Korea’s financial regulators flagged 33 IP addresses tied to suspected AI-assisted attacks on banks and financial firms, ordering companies to block them and run internal security checks. Streaming & Tech: Titan OS says SkyShowtime is now available on Titan OS-powered Philips and Sharp smart TVs across 22 European markets, including Sweden. Business Travel Impact: A GBTA study estimates business travel generated $283bn in economic activity across 25 major destinations, supporting jobs and local GDP.

Nobel Prize in Medicine: The 2026 Nobel in Physiology or Medicine goes to Karl Deisseroth (US) and Germans Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for optogenetics—using light to switch nerve cells on and off—opening new ways to map brain circuits and potentially treat disorders like Parkinson’s and epilepsy. Sweden’s Trade Stance: Sweden’s ambassador to Bangladesh argues for more open, rules-based trade as the answer to uncertainty, linking openness to prosperity and EU-Bangladesh market ties. Energy & Investment: Alight buys a 2 GW solar portfolio in southern Sweden from Soltech, with options for battery storage, aiming to move projects toward ready-to-build and long-term power deals. Finance & Payments: Trustly secures $40m+ in equity commitment letters to accelerate AI-driven payment intelligence. Defense Industry: Naval Group starts steel cutting for Sweden’s first FDI frigate at Lorient, part of a serial production plan for up to two ships a year. Auto Sector: Volvo Cars reports a Q3 global sales drop tied to China weakness and a slower US recovery, while Europe EV demand stays strong. Business & Media: Haymaker VFX acquires Stockholm studio SWISS, expanding creative capacity in Sweden and internationally.

Nobel Week Opens in Stockholm: The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Karl Deisseroth (US) and Germans Peter Hegemann and Georg Nagel for optogenetics—using light to switch individual brain cells on and off—kicking off a week of awards at the Karolinska Institute. Swedish Economy Pulse: Swedbank and industry group Silf report Sweden’s services sector PMI rising to 57.4 in September, the fastest pace in nearly a year, with order intake and employment among key drivers. Privacy vs. AI Glasses: Norway moves toward a temporary ban on smart/AI glasses in some settings, citing risks of recording photos or audio without consent. EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU states, led by Italy and Romania, urge protection of cohesion and farm funding in the 2028–2034 budget talks. Corporate/Finance: Alvotech wins an FDA nod to expand SIMLANDI® (adalimumab-ryvk) drug-substance production capacity at its Reykjavik site. Business & Tech: A new Euronews roundup highlights over €3.9B in European tech funding deals last week, with Sweden among top countries by deal value.

AI & Industry: SKF used an AI “recreation” of Hollywood icon Greta Garbo in a ball-bearing ad, sparking debate over copyright and synthetic media as the tech keeps moving from labs into mainstream branding. Smart Mobility & Regulation: Elon Musk says Tesla’s robotaxis still struggle to reliably spot pets at night, with the EU set to vote on camera-only driver-assistance approval next week—raising stakes for safety and compliance. Swedish Rail Orders: Alstom won an option for 35 more Avelia Stream Nordic trains for Västtrafik, lifting the total to 80 and reinforcing demand for faster, more sustainable regional rolling stock. Energy & Data Centers: Helsinki’s OnZero deal turns AI computing waste heat into district heating for up to 70,000 apartments from 2027, betting that greener data centers can become a city energy asset. Cybersecurity Risk: A report warns AI is lowering the bar for cyberattacks, making small and mid-sized European firms the preferred entry point via supply-chain links. Business Climate Messaging: Oatly rolls out “89 Percent Project” climate advocacy on cartons, pushing companies to use their platforms for policy pressure. Global Markets Watch: Swedish economist Erik Berglöf says India’s growth remains strong but faces risks from prolonged external shocks, tariffs, and the need for a more decentralised renewable energy system.

Costa del Sol Crime Wave: A gun attack in Malaga left a 47-year-old man in critical condition, the latest in a month of shootings across Spain’s holiday coast as organised crime networks expand and tourists face rising risk. Nordic Security & Diplomacy: Spain’s King Felipe VI and Letizia begin a state visit to Finland to underline Baltic and Arctic security cooperation as Sweden and Finland conduct joint interceptions amid heightened Russian pressure. Climate & Consumer Power: Oatly, Sweden’s oat giant, is putting climate messaging on cartons via the “89 Percent Project,” pushing the idea that most people want governments to act on climate change. Swedish Business in Focus Abroad: Sweden’s fintech Trustly secured a $40m equity commitment, while Payhawk is building a Stockholm hub for European expansion—signals of continued Nordic momentum in payments and fintech. EU Monetary Watch: Fed and ECB minutes are in focus after weak US jobs data and French market stress cooled expectations for further rate hikes. Sweden’s Tech & Infrastructure: Sweden’s trains are set to offer satellite connectivity, and Port of Gothenburg launched a new rail freight service—both aimed at boosting logistics and digital access. Protest in Stockholm: Hundreds gathered in Stockholm to protest Israeli attacks on Palestine and Lebanon and to urge Sweden to stop arms sales.